Obsolete by 2020
We may be on the verge of seeing the US Post Office put up “Going Out of Business” signs soon. Given this momentous occasion, this might be an apt moment to think about other institutions, technologies and ways of doing business that could disappear over the next decade.
My friend John Frankel got us started several days ago, but let’s see if we can take this another level and radically disrupt even more industries.
- Money – Our bank accounts have already become merely a electronic collection of 1’s and 0’s being passed around the world. Thus what need is there for paper bills, coins, checks and even credit cards when account information and currency can be accessed via personal mobile devices.
- Gas Stations – As we will be plugging in our cars and trucks for fuel, what purpose would the traditional gas station serve? Anyone with an outlet could effectively become a filling station across anywhere along cities and highways. I fully expect the next big Y-Combinator startup to be FuelBnB.
- Driving – Get ready for the age of auto-pilot. Computers will do much of the driving for humans, and given our dismal record, this should be seen as a good thing. Computer vision and AI technology will combine to make smarter and faster decisions about driving, thus greatly reducing accidents. Expect traffic jams, drunk driving and falling asleep at the wheel accidents to be things of the past.
- Flight –Using advances in rocketry and existing technologies that made the Harrier possible, planes will simply lift vertical from the ground and land without the need for runways. Using rocket engines and eliminating the largest risk and most time impactful stage in flight, travel to most destinations will be shortened by more than 50%.
- Phones – When a voice conversation can happen over any data connected device, what is the point of dedicated hardware occupying more space, over than as an antique. The same goes for computers, picture frames, pen/pencil holders, notepads, and anything that resides on the typical office desk of today. The one thing that will not get replaced however is the paper weight…you have to have something to give your boss when returning from vacation.
- Printing – Nostalgia and collecting will probably make this the hardest to eliminate, but in the mass market, printing books, magazines and newspapers have no use under an onslaught of Kindles, Nooks, iPads, tablet and mobile devices. The feel of paper is nice, but it cannot touch the sheer utility factor of an eReader or tablet.
- Typing – Not confirmed to simply taking voice inputs, which has been solved for the most part, the next stage is direct linking of thoughts to devices. The first iteration will probably only monitor muscle movements as you mouth words, but future iterations of technology will delve deeper into the thought complex of the mind. In fact, there is already technology that can read mental pictures of people watching movies.
- Displays – No longer needing to be confined to physical spaces, displays can now be displayed virtually and interact just like a touch screen display. Regular display hardware will become obsolete in most circumstances as the virtual screens provide just as good resolution and interactivity, yet provide the ultimate flexibility.
- Cooking – Instead of actually engaging in the act of cooking (which mostly entails heating food in microwaves for this generation), we will actually be printing our food, no longer confined to what nature itself produces and the impact of carting food to people. Note that I do not view this as all that great of an “innovation”, but it clearly makes the clean up easier. If you think this is totally nuts, prepare to have your mind blown by this Cornell University project to create edible food through a 3D printer.
- Surgery – Why open up someone when the problem can be fixed on the outside? That is why this will be the greatest of innovations, completely eliminating the risk of infection and errors. Technologies for cell regeneration, gene therapy and light/sound wave based surgical tools to perform procedures will drastically improve surgical outcomes.
- Pharmacists – With the national adoption of straight through processing of medical care and widespread adoption of electronic medical record management, doctors can send drug orders to be fulfilled in stores where a robot prepares and distributes drugs to the patient. Or better yet, drugs can be manufactured as needed through 3D drug printers.
- Cancer – With gene regeneration therapies, most cancers will be eliminated completely. This also obviates the need for chemotherapy and radiation treatments, which are both devastating and costly. Coupled with non-invasive surgery, expect average human life expectancy in developed nations to jump to 120 years old.
Yes, this timeline seems a bit preposterous given that many of these innovations may take entire generations to create and adopt. However I believe it is important to push the envelope and surprise ourselves, much like the decade not so long ago when we dared to step upon the moon. As one wise man once said, “We mustn’t be afraid to dream a little bigger, darling.”*
* One free beer for whoever is first to identify this quote by leaving a comment below.
16 Notes/ Hide
- mcdavis said: I had to google to be sure I was right, so I won’t answer but that snarky line was perfect from Tom.
- marksbirch posted this