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What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

Both Sides of the Table

At our mid-year offsite our partnership at Upfront Ventures was discussing what the future of venture capital and the startup ecosystem looked like. No blog post about how Tiger is crushing everybody because it’s deploying all its capital in 1-year while “suckers” are investing over 3-years can change this reality.

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How is the VC Asset Class Doing?

View from Seed

The top quartile has distributed 2.03x (vs. 1.68) and the median fund now has distributed 1.27X (vs. The longer the portfolio maintains the same value without distributing back cash, the worse the fund’s ultimate IRR. Based on that metric, the top quartile fund has now distributed 2.03X after 12 years.

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Resetting venture capital return expectations: is 10x the new 3x?

Version One Ventures

When I started Version One Ventures in 2012, every experienced VC shared the same rule of thumb: we had to return 3x net consistently to stay in business (i.e. 3x the invested capital net of fees over a period of about ten years for a net IRR in the low twenties). The chart below shows the numbers as of June 30, 2021. . .

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Flexible VC, a New Model for Companies Targeting Profitability

David Teten

Similar to the explosion of seed funds in the past decade, we (and some limited partners too ) believe these Flexible VCs are on the forefront of what will become a major segment of the venture ecosystem. We detail below the major categories of VC: VENTURE CAPITAL TYPOLOGY. FLEXIBLE VC VS. OTHER VENTURE CAPITAL MODELS.

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ESADE Business School Commencement Speech

Steve Blank

As the venture capital business has come roaring back in the last 5 years, startups are awash in available capital. Unfortunately as we’ve learned from recent experience, using Return on Net Assets and IRR as proxies for efficiency and execution won’t save a company when their industry encounters creative disruption.

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What to Expect When You're Expecting Venture Capital Returns

This is going to be BIG.

You incorporate expected company returns, mortality rates, and fee structures to try to predict how a venture capital fund works from a cash in, cash out, and NAV standpoint. And no, the numbers don't exactly add up--but they're more than close enough for venture capital. It's also not the "average fund".

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Venture Outcomes are Even More Skewed Than You Think

VC Adventure

It’s a generalization but one that’s pretty well accepted in venture circles and it’s how many VCs describe target fund distribution, myself included. Correlation Ventures just released a study that shows the distribution of outcomes across over 21,000 financings and spanning the years 20014-2013. Actually no.

IRR 133