Steve Blank

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Apple Vision Pro – Tech in the Search of a Market

Steve Blank

But the product/market fit of this first iteration is a swing and a miss. Marketing and capital expenses (new factory, high R&D expense) were predicated on consumer-scale sales.

Search 256
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The Phantom Sales Forecast – Failing at Customer Validation

Steve Blank

He said, “I insist on getting weekly status reports with forecasted deal size and probability of close. When I asked how close any of the deals on the forecast were to getting closed, he assured me the company’s two beta customers—well-known companies that would be marquee accounts if they closed—were imminent orders.

Forecast 270
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Why the Future of Tesla May Depend on Knowing What Happened to Billy Durant

Steve Blank

Sloan put in place GM’s management accounting system (also borrowed from DuPont) that for the first time allowed the company to: 1) produce an annual operating forecast that compared each division’s forecast (revenue, costs, capital requirements and return on investment) with the company’s financial goals.

Michigan 268
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Solving the Innovator’s Dilemma – Customer Development in a Big Company

Steve Blank

So to get new divisions launched large optimistic forecasts are the norm. Ironically, one of the greatest risks in large companies is high pressure expectations to make these first pass forecasts that subvert an honest Customer Development process.

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Is the Lean Startup Dead?

Steve Blank

Startups wrote business plans, generated expansive 5-year forecasts and executed (hired, spent and built) to the plan. Given the stock market was buying “the story and vision” of anything internet, inflated expectations were more important than traditional metrics like customers, growth, revenue, or heaven forbid, profits.

Lean 335
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Rising out of the Crisis: Where to Find New Markets and Customers

Steve Blank

Revenue models and forecasts are no longer valid. As the economy reopens companies are finding that customers may have disappeared or that their spending behavior has changed. Suppliers are going out of business or requiring cash-up-front terms. Accounts receivables are stretching way out.

Customer 436
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The Virus Survival Strategy For Your Startup

Steve Blank

Next, take a look at your actual revenue each month – not forecast, but real revenue coming in each month. If so, whatever revenue forecast and sales cycle estimates you had are no longer valid. And how much are variable expenses (salaries, consultants, commission, travel, AWS/Azure charges, supplies, etc.?). Laying off people?

Burn Rate 436