Securing the Supply Chain – COVID-19 series

If there is one thing we’ve realised it’s how interconnected and physical our world really is. Digital can only substitute so much. With 70 years of unimpeded global growth and globalisation we’ve all become a little complacent. So I’m offering two thought experiments on possible natural and technological disasters. Two aren’t just possible, but probable.

Scenario 1: Floods in China.

Let’s imagine China faces an unprecedented period of rain due to climate change. More rain than any location has ever had in recorded history. The next result is nationwide floods, and damage to ports, which need to be close for repairs that could take 12-18 months to fix. The supply chain gets choked. Nothing can get in our out of China which isn’t on an airplane.

The global economy which has come to rely on China as its low cost factory will be in trouble again. While this wouldn’t be as calamitous as COVID-19 – it would put a bigger dint in the the economy than the GFC did. We are not ready for this. 

Scenario 2: Global Internet Virus.

Now imagine a new form of artificial intelligence develops its own agenda. Not a walking talking terminator style robot – but something more more immediate and plausible. An A.I, driven virus which is manages to take down every desktop, laptop, phone, server farm, terminal, and device connected to the internet across the entire world. And this AI virus is so clever it can work around every safety measure and firewall design into the web. The virus becomes a type of learning organism. No one knows how it started, where it came from, or how to stop it.

All we know is that we can no longer use the internet or any computing device to feed ourselves, keep our houses warm and keep people healthy. This too would impact the developed world in an unimaginably large way. We are not ready for this.

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Both scenarios would require levels of independence and redundancy most developed economies have let lapse in the name of efficiency. A stark reminder that a robust economic system needs design elements which are inefficient on purpose.