How To Predict The Future
Feld Thoughts
JUNE 22, 2012
I plotted the growth in capacity of magnetic platter hard drives and flash drives back in 2006 or so, and saw that flash would overtake magnetic media in 2016. But it’s hard to say, even with hindsight, that we could have predicted Wikipedia, let alone forecast when it would occur. (If Step 2: Forecast the linear trend.
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