How To Predict The Future
Feld Thoughts
JUNE 22, 2012
I’m going to start by going back to 1994. But it’s hard to say, even with hindsight, that we could have predicted Wikipedia, let alone forecast when it would occur. (If It’s a wonderfully compelling idea, but it’s a little like video streaming in 1994: the hardware simply isn’t there yet. Step 2: Forecast the linear trend.
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