A Smart Bear: Startups and Marketing for Geeks

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The Lindy Effect on startup potential

A Smart Bear: Startups and Marketing for Geeks

Will you ever get 2000? I hope so, but most companies that do get 100 never get 2000. At the low end, maybe there really isn’t a market, or the market really doesn’t want that product, at a profitable price, so you can squeeze out some early sales but it can’t get substantially bigger.

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Pricing determines your business

A Smart Bear: Startups and Marketing for Geeks

Price is as important as any other feature to determine product/market “fit.” ” How many times have you seen someone struggle with an inferior product because they cannot afford the better one? Price is inextricably linked to brand, product, and purchasing decisions — by whom, why, how, and when.

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Not disruptive, and proud of it

A Smart Bear: Startups and Marketing for Geeks

A disruptive product causes such a large market shift that entire companies collapse (the ones who don't "get it") and new markets appear. It's hard to think of disruptive technologies or products that didn't take many millions of dollars to implement. Disruptive" is the in-vogue word for the opposite of "incremental improvement."

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The wrong question: Is now the right time to start a company?

A Smart Bear: Startups and Marketing for Geeks

It’s wise because costs are low (every vendor is thrilled to have new business) and if you can get people to buy when money is tight, you’ve really proved you have a desirable product. When the economy is good and the product fits the market, sales are easy. When the economy rushes back, you ride the wave.

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How should a startup founder value her time?

A Smart Bear: Startups and Marketing for Geeks

The risk is high, so the potential financial rewards must be commensurate with that risk, which means you have to value your time between $1000 and $2000 per hour , not at your $150/hour consultant rate because of platitudes like “my time is worth what the market will bear.” ” What does this mean for your daily life?

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The rise of the “successful” unsustainable company

A Smart Bear: Startups and Marketing for Geeks

invested, IPO’ed in 2000 for $32/share — stock price now $2. Like GroupOn, with a product that everyone agreed was brilliant, spawning 1,000 copy-cats. GroupOn’s engine that turned capital into revenue growth was a form of force-feeding rather than building a product). Support.com — On 2.5m

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Fermi estimation for startup business models

A Smart Bear: Startups and Marketing for Geeks

Their product has a few usage tiers; on average a customer spends $50/mo. Including future cancellations, they’ll need to sign up a total of 2000 customers to net 1666. Of course not all people will find out about the product from advertisement! So they’ll need 1666 customers to achieve their revenue target. (We