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On Bubbles … And Why We’ll Be Just Fine

Both Sides of the Table

I know that most people who are close to them tend to deny their existence, as we saw in the great housing bubble of 2002-2007 and the dot com bubble of 1997-2000. In addition to FOMO it is partly driven by massive increase in valuations for earlier-stage companies who raised money at bit seed prices but who still have product risk.

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How is the VC Asset Class Doing?

View from Seed

Over the last 10 years, we’ve been in a bull market with considerable froth in late stage financing activity and valuations. The cases of WeWork and Uber cast a cloud of doubt over funds that are largely driven by one or two outlier companies that may have a tremendous valuation, but shaky underlying business metrics.

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LinkedIn: The Series A Fundraising Story ? AGILEVC

Agile VC

Silicon Valley is still emerging from the tech bubble and massive downturn of late 2000-2002. To give you a sense, for 2002 the entire US online ad market was $6B and had shrunk year over year (it was $25B+ for 2010). round which closed in November 2003, and the pre-money valuation between $10 million and $15 million.

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What Just Happened

Feld Thoughts

2002 sucked, but it wasn’t as dreadful. No one is going to raise a $100 billion VC fund and start spraying money around at fantastical valuations, followed by everyone else suspending disbelief and believing companies, regardless of their businesses, are worth 50x next year’s revenue. 2001 was a dreadful year for me.

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The Great Coding School Rollup of 2015

Feld Thoughts

revenue were the correct valuations since these are generally 5% to 10% net income businesses that are 30% – 40% gross margin and heavily dependent on (a) transitory labor and (b) favorable supply/demand conditions. Companies were being bought (and valued) at 10x forward revenue only to be valued at between 0.5x

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Good Times Ahead for VC-backed Tech Companies?

Both Sides of the Table

The total number of M&A deals in the US this year is projected to be a paltry 225 transactions relative to more than 450 deals just 2 years ago, which was the norm between 2002-2007, varying only by around 3% per year. Pure Digital to Cisco) but that even the 2nd largest will get much lover valuations. Love to hear more views! .

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What Startups Need to Know About Exit Strategies

Up and Running

In 2002 I provided an exit for VCs who had invested in Palo Alto Software a few years earlier. Valuations had changed and we weren’t looking to be acquired, so we bought out their shares to avoid locking them in forever as minority share holders in a company that wasn’t going public and wasn’t going to be acquired.