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How To Predict The Future

Feld Thoughts

We needed improvements in video compression and in TCP/IP – the underlying protocol that essentially runs the Internet. I looked at the future predictions for “modem speed” (as I called it back then, today we’d called it internet connection speed or bandwidth). Gene Kim laughed at my prediction. But I digress…).

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What if it’s 1996, not 1999?

Seeing Both Sides

In May 1996, Open Market completed a successful IPO and more than doubled on the first day of trading, ending with a $1.2 If investors observing this extraordinary phenomenon in 1996 were to have concluded that the technology market was in the midst of an unsustainable bubble, they would not have been wrong. We had recorded $1.8

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Prevailing Wisdom

Mucker Lab

1996 – “It’s impossible to get to build a billion dollar company selling widgets at $15 and taking $1 commission one at a time”. 2011 – “There is no network effect in the enterprise software business; it’s not a category we invest in anymore”. 1994 – “Consumers are fickle and unpredictable. 2008 – “RIP, Good Times”.

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The Imperceptible, But Very Real Boom

Agile VC

I believe we’re going to look back in 2-5 years and realize that we’ve been in a once a decade boom for internet & software startups. In the tech sphere, a good bit of air was let out of the tires when the hype around some consumer-facing internet companies proved transitory.

IPO 147
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Prevailing Wisdom

Mucker Lab

1996 – “It’s impossible to get to build a billion dollar company selling widgets at $15 and taking $1 commission one at a time”. 2011 – “There is no network effect in the enterprise software business; it’s not a category we invest in anymore”. 1994 – “Consumers are fickle and unpredictable. 2008 – “RIP, Good Times”.

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Angel Investing: Skill 3 – Relationships with VCs

Both Sides of the Table

To some extent Keith Rabois agreed with me about domain knowledge and argued that most of his investments are in the consumer Internet space as a result. Let’s call these cards 1996-99, 2005-08 and 2010+. If 2011 & 2012 look like 2010 then the current crop of angel investments will look great. Obviously I agree.

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Your Next Startup Will Likely Be Run By a Boomer

Startup Professionals Musings

These indicate that the correct icon for an entrepreneur may now have gray hair, rather than the warm glow of youth: The number of Baby Boomers starting a business from 1996 to 2011 rose nearly 7 percent, while the start-up rate by those aged 20 to 44 fell about 5 percent.