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On Bubbles … And Why We’ll Be Just Fine

Both Sides of the Table

I know that most people who are close to them tend to deny their existence, as we saw in the great housing bubble of 2002-2007 and the dot com bubble of 1997-2000. And this is happening in mezzanine (pre-IPO) deals as well. And post IPO deals, although these tend to correct more quickly. Why does all this matter? Have a cushion.

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Good Times Ahead for VC-backed Tech Companies?

Both Sides of the Table

The total number of M&A deals in the US this year is projected to be a paltry 225 transactions relative to more than 450 deals just 2 years ago, which was the norm between 2002-2007, varying only by around 3% per year. Fred Wilson supports Montgomery’s view in this thoughtful post on the return of the tech IPO market.

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Does the Size of a VC Fund Matter?

Both Sides of the Table

A 1997 vintage is likely to perform much better than a 2000 vintage because the former got to ride the dot com bonanza and likely saw some quick IPOs and crazy trade sales while the latter is more likely filled with many companies that never reached the promise land (or are still trying). Why does vintage matter to you?

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How is the VC Asset Class Doing?

View from Seed

At the same time, despite some realizations in recent years through M&A, PE acquisitions, and IPOs, the general sense I get from LPs is that the level of distributions don’t quite line up with the unrealized performance. In looking at the data, it’s interesting to note that the TVPI for funds from 2002-2006 is pretty weak.

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Yahoo! vs Facebook: Lame Lawsuit, Good Timing ? AGILEVC

Agile VC

And at PayPal we were hit with a couple patent disputes while in the midst of our IPO process. While it was still a college-focused SNS, Facebook of course launched in 2004 and there were plenty of other examples of social networking already… Friendster (2002), LinkedIn (2003), MySpace (2003), Orkut (2004). execs involved.

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LinkedIn: The Series A Fundraising Story ? AGILEVC

Agile VC

Google is still a private company (their IPO was Aug 2004). Silicon Valley is still emerging from the tech bubble and massive downturn of late 2000-2002. To give you a sense, for 2002 the entire US online ad market was $6B and had shrunk year over year (it was $25B+ for 2010). Ok, now you have the context for early 2003.

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How Reed Hastings’ Facebook Status Update Landed Netflix in SEC’s Crosshairs

Gust

Before the commercial Internet, the primary tools of disclosure included: Prospectus and related registration statement (“S-1″) for an IPO. Compressing 80 years of history into a paragraph, securities regulation here is fundamentally a disclosure-based system.

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