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US ecommerce sales forecast at $294bn this year, growing 9.5%

The Equity Kicker

New forecasts out from Forrester predict that online retail sales in the US will be $294bn this year, rising to $414bn by 2018. The growth rate from 2013-2018 is forecast to be 9.5%. Ecommerce' Better still, even after this growth online retail in the US will only be 11% of total retail sales, up from 9% this year.

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Forecasting ecommerce multiples at exit

The Equity Kicker

Mahesh Vellanki from Redpoint put up an interesting post yesterday about ecommerce valuations. Etsy is arguably more of a marketplace than an ecommerce company and marketplaces have higher margins, more defensibility and hence attract higher multiples, so I would discount them. 1-800 Flowers, meanwhile is valued at 0.6x

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Forecasting in venture capital

The Equity Kicker

Good VCs need to be good forecasters. Deloitte have just published an interesting synopsis of Tetlock’s Superforecasting which gives us some insights into the types of people we need to recruit and the habits we need to cultivate to be good at the forecasting game. cautious in their forecasts. cautious in their forecasts.

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This Week in VC with Dana Settle of Greycroft Partners

Both Sides of the Table

It’s always fun debating companies with Dana because she’s always so knowledgeable on deals – particularly those in the digital media, ad-tech and eCommerce spaces. Our guest this week on #TWiVC was Dana Settle , partner at Greycroft Partners , a venture capital firm with offices in New York and Los Angeles. Greycroft is an early-stage VC.

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The UK is still hot for ecommerce

The Equity Kicker

For a while we’ve spent more online per head than other developed economies and created more than our fair share of ecommerce winners as a result. Global eCommerce is forecast to grow at 23% 2013-2014 and 18% 2014-2015. Within that the UK eCommerce is forecast to grow at 17% 2013-2014.

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Why you should never have a data room — the most counter-intuitive fund-raising advice you’ll ever…

Both Sides of the Table

If a VC meets with 40 eCommerce companies and has the data room on all of them (downloaded on to his or her system) then when they DO finally dig in on an investment opportunity they can compare information such as CACs, LTVs, churn rates, margins, etc. But I assure you it plays a big role. against a broad range of similar companies.

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Zulily – one of the fastest growing retailers of all time

The Equity Kicker

I knew that Zulily , which Crunchbase describes as ‘A daily deal site for mums, babies and kids’ is an amazing ecommerce success story which IPO’d last year with a valuation in the billions. As you can see from the chart below they went from a standing start in Q4 2010 to a forecast $1.1bn in net sales last quarter.