Agile Forecast Product Development Silicon Valley 
Steve Blank
SEPTEMBER 5, 2018
Startups wrote business plans, generated expansive 5-year forecasts and executed (hired, spent and built) to the plan. The mantra of “ first mover advantage ,” the idea that winners are the ones who are the first entrants in their market, became the conventional wisdom of investors in Silicon Valley.“
Up and Running
MAY 23, 2016
While it’s useful to be able to have a sales forecast and expense budget early on, it’s not something you need until you’ve validated your idea. Later you will want to come back and create a proper sales forecast, cash flow forecast, and expense budget. This is the simplest version of your product minus the frills and frosting.
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Steve Blank
SEPTEMBER 3, 2009
This post describes how the traditional product development model distorts startup sales, marketing and business development. The Use of a Product Development Model to Measure Sales Using the product development diagram for startup sales activities is like using a clock to tell the temperature.
Startup Lessons Learned
NOVEMBER 13, 2008
Because five whys kept turning up a few key metrics that were hard to set static thresholds for, we even had a dynamic prediction algorithm that would make forecasts based on past data, and fire alerts if the metric ever went out of its normal bounds. Wed never heard of five whys, and we had plenty of "agile skeptics" on the team.
Startup Lessons Learned
JULY 9, 2009
And then, at my first Silicon Valley startup , I watched friends get laid off in successive waves as it started to fail. Talking about trends is more about trying to forecast the future, like a guru, sometimes it works, sometimes not. No business model, either. It seemed like just a bunch of research-oriented PhDs. Expo SF (May.
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